Markets

The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% and raised inflation to 4.4%, while Wall Street's biggest banks posted record Q1 earnings on a trading boom driven by the same war.

Sarah Breeden's rare BBC warning cites AI valuations near dot-com peak levels, $2.5 trillion in untested private credit, and Middle East risk as three threats converging at the worst possible moment.

The DOJ dropped its criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell on April 24, removing the key Senate obstacle to Kevin Warsh's confirmation and setting up the most consequential Fed handover in two decades.

The DOJ dropped its probe of Jerome Powell on Friday, clearing the Senate path for Kevin Warsh and forcing bond traders to recalibrate every assumption about the rate outlook through 2027.

Fundstrat analysis confirms Trump's posts drive more S&P 500 best-and-worst days than any U.S. president since Reagan, forcing institutions to trade the president, not the economy.

WBD shareholders voted 99% in favor of Paramount Skydance's $110.9 billion takeover, but the stock fell 4.5% the next day as investors tallied a $49 billion debt load and $24 billion in Gulf sovereign funds.

Banks, regulators and traders are no longer treating private credit as an isolated yield story. They are starting to price how stress in a multi-trillion-dollar market would travel through the rest of Wall Street.

JPMorgan’s new 7,600 target turns the AI trade into a hard index number, sharpening the market’s dependence on a narrow group of mega-cap profit engines.

Alphabet's jumbo bond sale, capped by a rare 100-year tranche, shows Wall Street is now financing the AI infrastructure race alongside Big Tech cash flows.

Reuters, citing The Information, reported that SpaceX lost nearly $5 billion in 2025, giving private investors a rare benchmark for pricing one of the market’s most coveted assets.

CoreWeave's IPO became a referendum on whether public investors will fund AI cloud growth when it arrives with heavy debt, extreme capex and a customer list led by Microsoft.

Reuters reported on April 9, citing The Information, that SpaceX lost nearly $5 billion in 2025, giving investors a rare hard figure for a private company long valued on launch dominance and Starlink growth.

CoreWeave's IPO gives public-market investors a direct test of whether AI-computing demand can support high valuations, heavy debt and concentrated customer exposure.

A consortium of 10 European banks is preparing a euro stablecoin, reflecting a strategic push to protect deposits, payments revenue and monetary influence from the rise of dollar tokens.

CoreWeave’s $8.5 billion loan is more than a funding deal: it shows AI infrastructure is starting to be financed like power, telecom and data centers through large-scale debt.

Governor Tiff Macklem says AI is becoming a financial-stability issue as common models, data and vendors raise the risk of faster, more correlated market stress.

Redemption limits at Apollo, Ares and peers are exposing a structural flaw in private credit’s march into wealth management: illiquid loans sold with an expectation of easy exits.

OpenAI has closed a 40 billion funding round valuing the company at 300 billion, the most valuable private company in history. ChatGPT Enterprise has surpassed 20 million paid users, up 1,233% from 1.5 million in early 2024.

Nvidia posted adjusted EPS of $4.82 versus a $3.60 Wall Street consensus, with data center revenue hitting $15B, up 114% year-over-year, driven by hyperscaler GPU orders. Gross margins expanded to 78.4%.

Commodity traders and sovereign actors are restructuring oil and metals settlements away from dollars, threatening a cornerstone of greenback dominance as tariff tensions mount.

The FDIC resolved eight regional banks in Q4 2025 — the highest quarterly count since 2020 — as commercial real estate loans sour. Huntington Bancshares and New York Community Bancorp are absorbing the fallout, while 7 billion in problem CRE loans mature through 2027.

Flutterwave obtains banking licence in Nigeria, strengthening payments ecosystem control. Comes months after Mono acquisition, building integrated financial services platform. Licence authorizes regional payment bank operations including deposit-taking and digital services.

Wells Fargo Q1 2026 earnings due April 14 — analysts expect ~10% profit growth. Net interest income benefiting from elevated interest rates and large deposit base. Credit card delinquency trends closely watched for consumer financial stress signs.

Goldman Sachs Q1 2026 beats with 19% profit jump to .49 EPS. Investment banking fees surge 26% year-on-year as M&A advisory returns to markets. Advisory backlog entering Q2 appears robust. Equity underwriting grows as IPO appetite recovers.

Oil breaches $100/barrel as US prepares Hormuz blockade. Asia markets decline; most shipping stalled despite ceasefire talks. Strait of Hormuz handles one-fifth of global oil supply. Shipping insurance costs surge; vessels diverted add 2-3 weeks to voyage times.

Gold mining stocks rally as Freeport-McMoRan, Newmont, Barrick, and Agnico Eagle lead precious metals surge amid record gold prices approaching $4,700/oz. Central bank demand from China, India, and Turkey provides structural floor under prices while mining equities lag physical gold appreciation, creating potential catch-up opportunity.

Wall Street has closed its fifth consecutive losing week, the longest sustained decline since the Iran war began, as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all hit year lows amid mounting inflation concerns.

Goldman Sachs economists warn the Iran war has elevated the risk of a U.S. recession within 12 months, as higher oil prices push inflation to 3.1% while growth slows simultaneously.

Nvidia posted 6.8 billion in Q4 FY2026 revenue, up 122% year-over-year, with Data Center reaching 6.1 billion as Blackwell GPU demand from Azure, AWS, and Google Cloud accelerated.